Incremental replacement analysis

Heat pump vs furnace + AC payback calculator

Compare the cost you would actually avoid—not a heat pump against doing nothing. Enter both quotes to see whether the upgrade pays back.

Δ(heat pump cost − heat pump incentives) − (furnace + AC cost − baseline incentives)
Quick estimateUses visible national starting assumptions. Best for screening two quotes.

Compare the quotes

Gross prices before incentives
$
$
Only incentives you expect to qualify for.
$
A comparable replacement quote for the same home.
$

Describe current energy use

Use heating-only cost where possible
Sets quick-mode COP and backup defaults only.
$
Exclude fixed gas fees if your bill separates them.
$

Audit the operating model

Local rates and equipment data
$/therm
$/kWh
%
%
Use a contractor model or measured estimate when available.
%
$/kWh
%
$
$/year
Positive means the heat-pump option costs more.
years
%/yr
%/yr
%
At 0%, results are nominal cash flow.

Planning model, not a quote. Quick mode uses visible national starting assumptions. Detailed mode lets you replace them. The calculator permits unfavorable results.

What this model does

Two real purchase decisions enter. One honest result leaves.

Incremental cost

A furnace and central AC are not free. Payback starts with the difference between both net quotes.

Physics, not a savings slogan

Fuel price, AFUE, seasonal COP, SEER2, cooling, and backup heat determine operating cost.

Fixed charges count

If electrification removes a gas connection fee, the avoided charge belongs in the comparison.

Bad news is allowed

If costs rise or cash flow never recovers the premium, the calculator says so plainly.